Commercial truck crash cases have become more costly over the past decade, particularly when a collision causes death, permanent disability, or years of medical care. But there is no reliable national database showing the average truck crash settlement or how that figure has changed year by year.
That is partly because most civil cases end before trial. The fact that a case settled may appear on a public docket, but the amount and other terms can remain confidential, according to the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has encountered the same obstacle: Its 2026 report to Congress said many trucking lawsuits are resolved under nondisclosure agreements, while insurers generally treat claims information as proprietary.
Available government and transportation research nevertheless points to several changes. Fatal large-truck crashes became more numerous, medical and other losses grew, a decades-old federal insurance minimum lost much of its purchasing power, and exceptionally large jury awards became a more visible part of trucking litigation.
To examine how the financial stakes have shifted, THE702FIRM Injury Attorneys, a Las Vegas personal injury law firm, reviewed federal crash statistics, insurance requirements, and public research on commercial trucking litigation.
Settlement data remains fragmented
A settlement is an agreement between the parties, while a verdict is a decision returned after a trial. The two are often discussed together, but verdict data is generally easier to identify because court judgments are more likely to create public records.
FMCSA told Congress that it could provide only a limited assessment of whether existing trucking insurance requirements remain adequate. The agency said it would need anonymized, person-level insurance claims data to determine how frequently losses exceed policy limits, but efforts to obtain that information through existing authority and voluntary disclosure had been unsuccessful.
That limitation makes broad statements about the “average” settlement unreliable. Publicly announced settlements may overrepresent catastrophic cases, while routine confidential resolutions remain largely invisible. The more defensible finding is that the upper end of trucking claims has faced growing financial pressure, even though the size of any individual settlement still depends on the injuries, available insurance, state law, disputed fault, future care needs, lost earnings, and strength of the evidence.
The underlying crash exposure grew
Federal statistics show why severe truck cases continue to carry substantial financial risk. In 2013, the United States recorded approximately 327,000 police-reported crashes involving large trucks. Of those, 3,541 were fatal crashes and an estimated 69,000 involved injuries, according to FMCSA’s 2013 Large Truck and Bus Crash Facts.
By 2022, FMCSA counted approximately 503,000 police-reported large-truck crashes, including 5,279 fatal crashes and an estimated 114,000 injury crashes. The number of fatal crashes was about 49% higher than in 2013. Comparisons involving nonfatal crashes require caution because the federal government changed its national crash-sampling system beginning with 2016 data.
The consequences also fall disproportionately on people outside the truck. In 2022, based on the same report from FMCSA, 82% of those killed in crashes involving large trucks were not occupants of the truck itself. That mix can produce claims involving several injured people or surviving family members, multiplying medical, income, funeral, and noneconomic losses within a single crash.
The federal insurance floor did not keep pace with costs
For-hire interstate general freight carriers are generally required to maintain at least $750,000 in bodily injury and property damage coverage. That minimum took effect on Jan. 1, 1985, and remains in place, according to FMCSA’s 2026 financial responsibility report to Congress. Higher requirements apply to carriers transporting certain hazardous materials.
FMCSA calculated that the $750,000 general-freight minimum would amount to approximately $2.2 million in 2024 dollars when adjusted for core inflation. An adjustment based on medical inflation would raise the equivalent to approximately $3.7 million. The agency found that medical prices increased at an average annual rate of 4.21% between 1985 and 2024, compared with 2.8% for core consumer prices.
The gap was already apparent a decade ago. In 2014, FMCSA reported that severe and critical truck crash injuries could exceed $1 million and concluded that existing minimums did not adequately cover some catastrophic losses. The agency considered changing the requirements but withdrew the rulemaking in 2017 after determining it lacked sufficient data on claims, insurance, costs, and benefits.
The federal minimum is only a floor. Some carriers buy $1 million primary policies, excess insurance, umbrella coverage, or participate in self-insurance and captive arrangements. Even so, a claim exceeding the available limits can influence negotiations, particularly when several people were injured or when projected medical and lifetime-support costs extend far into the future.
Large verdicts changed the settlement calculation
The term “nuclear verdict” is not a formal legal classification. It is commonly used for jury awards exceeding $10 million, although some transportation research also examines verdicts exceeding $1 million. A study examined 600 truck-related cases between 2006 and 2019. It identified 79 verdicts above $1 million from 2005 through 2011, compared with 265 from 2012 through 2019, a 235% increase. The study also found that average verdict growth substantially exceeded both general inflation and medical-cost growth during the period analyzed.
Still, large verdicts affect cases that never reach a jury. Settlement negotiations are based in part on expected trial outcomes: the probability that a party will prevail, the range of damages a jury could award, the cost of continued litigation, and the possibility that an award will be reduced or reversed on appeal.
A later ATRI analysis covering tractor-trailer litigation from 2019 through 2024 found that settlements tended to be lower than verdicts in cases valued at $5 million or more, while settlements were often higher than verdicts in cases below $1 million. That suggests two different calculations. Smaller cases may settle to avoid defense costs and uncertainty, while high-severity cases may resolve below the amount a jury could potentially award.
More of a claim’s value can depend on future losses
A commercial truck case is not valued solely by the hospital bills accumulated immediately after the crash. Severe claims may include future surgery, rehabilitation, medication, assistive equipment, home modifications, reduced earning capacity, long-term attendant care, and the effect of permanent injuries on daily life.
The past decade also brought greater scrutiny of evidence beyond the collision itself. Driver qualification files, hours-of-service records, vehicle inspections, maintenance histories, electronic logging data, dispatch communications, onboard cameras, and company safety policies can all affect how the parties assess responsibility and trial risk. Recent transportation research has linked allegations of hiring and onboarding failures to higher awards, although the significance of any record depends on its relevance to the crash.
At the same time, a large verdict is not necessarily the final amount paid. Trial judges can reduce awards, appellate courts can order new trials, state laws may restrict punitive or noneconomic damages, and comparative-fault rules can reduce recovery when responsibility is divided.
What will shape the next decade?
FMCSA’s latest report reaches a narrower conclusion than either side of the trucking-litigation debate might prefer. Catastrophic crashes are relatively uncommon, but losses from fatal and severe-injury crashes can greatly exceed the federal minimum. The agency also lacks enough comprehensive settlement and claims data to determine how often that happens nationwide.
Future settlement trends will depend on more than jury awards. Crash frequency and severity, medical inflation, wage growth, insurance capacity, state legislative changes, vehicle technology, and the availability of objective electronic evidence will all shape how cases are evaluated.
For now, the public record supports two findings: The largest commercial truck cases carry substantially greater potential exposure than the $750,000 federal minimum was designed to address, and verdict data provides only a partial view of a system in which most disputes are resolved privately.
